Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Mathematical Proof: The Key Behind A Good New Year's Resolution

We’re 28 days into the New Year, and I wonder how everyone’s New Year’s resolutions are holding up. Maybe I view a lot of people as unmotivated, or ill willed, or undetermined; but whatever the reason, I assumed that most New Year’s resolutions have already been sacked.

I don’t judge character by commitment to a resolution. But I was curious as to the percentages of people who stick to their New Year’s Resolutions. I figured I would check online because it’s the most credible source available. Why would people lie on the internet? I think of the internet and indisputable facts as one in the same. I mean, people don’t just have websites devoted to making up lies, do they?

…keep reading to find out the answer.

Credible or not, I found some lovely stats pertaining to New Year’s Resolutions. And in order to make the stats more enjoyable I will relate them to the (currently) 20 followers of my blog (I will exclude myself due to biasness, but really it’s because it’s harder to do math with a base 21 compared to 20). We can then see how many of you will follow through with your goal.

Okay, grab the pencil and paper. See if you can follow this math.

First off, only 45% of you actually set New Year’s resolutions. That’s 9 of you! See, aren’t percentages so much more fun when they are people? I changed my mind and I do want to include myself in these statistics. Now 10 people made New Year’s resolutions.

Two weeks into the year, 2 of you dropped your goal. After 1 month, 1 more person will ditch your goal. Be careful, that’s only 3 days away. 1 more of you will desert your goal when July comes around. And then there were 5.

Those remaining made it half a year. I’m impressed. But my vim is short lived. Something will happen in the 6 months that follow that will eliminate you all from the title of grand champion. That’s right, you understood my analogy correctly; statistically, our sample is too small for any of you to cash in on your New Year’s resolution.

Pretty grim, eh? Don’t worry, there is hope yet. If you got our sample group (my blog’s followers) and added me and 6 more people. Then there would be 1 person who stuck with their resolutions for a whole year. What are you waiting for? Get recruiting! Statistically, none of you will accomplish your New Year’s resolutions.

Only 6 people, that’s not a lot. As I recall, that’s the number of my blog’s followers who have stuck with their New Year’s resolutions thus far.

If we just had 6 more followers of my blog then one of you in our sample group will achieve your resolution. Statistically, if only 45% of people set New Year’s resolutions. With 27 people (20 followers +me + 6 recruits), that would be about 12 of you who set New Year’s resolutions. Only 8% of those who set New Year’s resolutions will stick with them after a year (12 x .08 = .96, which I’ll round up to 1).

Obviously, no matter what provisions you make to achieve your goal, they are futile, if you leave out the key step: recruitment. If you made a New Year’s resolution, and have stuck with it this far (statistically 64%, .64 x 9=~6 of you)you need to recruit one follower each to get a total of 26 followers, add me to the sample, and one of you will achieve your New Year’s resolution. It is the only way.

No comments:

Post a Comment